Sector studies

Who it is for

Investment committee. Risk banking. New business development.

Goal

Read the whole field before valuing an asset.

Answers

• What does the full chain look like today, from basin to export?
• Which operators remain, and under what contract structure?
• Which production recovery scenarios are credible?

Method

Documented primary and secondary sources. Every conclusion traces back to its origin.

Format

Seven reports, two infographics, five executive presentations, video and podcast.

Updated: September 2026 · Access on request

Who it is for

Investment committee. Risk banking. Corporate legal counsel.

Goal

Know how much the State takes before you model a return.

Answers

• How much does the State take, and through which instrument?
• How does its fiscal appeal compare with peer countries?
• What changes under the current sanctions regime?

Method

A reading of the legal instrument in force. The fiscal cascade is rebuilt step by step.

Format

Nine chapters and a government take and breakeven guide.

Updated: September 2026 · Access on request

Who it is for

Planning leadership. Investment committee. Project finance.

Goal

Know the price at which each type of field stops being viable.

Answers

• What is the full-cycle breakeven by basin and crude type?
• What separates breakeven cost from breakeven price?
• How much does each variable move the result, one at a time?

Method

CAPEX and OPEX benchmarks calibrated against mid-cycle Brent.

Format

Financial model with dataset and sensitivity matrix.

Updated: September 2026 · Access on request

Who it is for

Investment committee. Trading and marketing. Risk banking.

Goal

Separate the discount that goes away from the one that is here to stay.

Answers

• How much of today’s discount is structural and permanent?
• How much comes back if market access normalizes?
• How much comes from degraded quality, recoverable with investment?

Method

Historical series of realized prices, broken down layer by layer.

Format

Matrix with historical series, ready to feed a cost model.

On the Blog

• Merey: of the $8 discount to Maya, only $2 is permanent

Figures from the study

• In 2022 Merey sold $11.1 below Maya, not $15
• Merey would realize $73 per barrel today and $61 from 2029
• A non-state partner realizes Brent −16 for Merey, not the official price

Updated: September 2026 · Access on request

Who it is for

Business development. Investment committee. Due diligence.

Goal

Know who you can negotiate with, and with what exit risk.

Answers

• Who holds which asset, and under what contract form?
• Which ones are suspended and which are producing?
• What exit risk does each contract carry?

Method

Documentary reconstruction from primary sources, with weighted scoring.

Format

Database with risk matrix and actionable ranking.

Updated: September 2026 · Access on request

Who it is for

Credit committee. Board of directors. Compliance and risk.

Goal

Reach the committee with the environment understood, not with volume to read.

Answers

• What in the macro environment really changes the decision?
• What does the regulatory and institutional framework demand today?
• Which signals are worth watching after the decision?

Method

Documented synthesis of public and regulatory sources, with an explicit cut-off date.

Format

Executive report and presentation.

Updated: September 2026 · Access on request

Who it is for

Creditors and debt investors. Investment committee. Corporate legal counsel.

Goal

Know who gets paid first and how much each creditor can recover.

Answers

• How much is owed, to whom, and under which instrument?
• What does restructuring the Republic’s and PDVSA’s bonds require?
• What does each class of creditor recover in each scenario?

Method

Primary sources cross-checked: IMF, courts and international arbitration. Where they diverge, we report the range.

Format

Eight reports, a glossary of more than 130 terms and updatable master data.

On the Blog

• PDVSA bonds: an exchange needs a yes from almost 100% of holders

Figures from the study

• Venezuela's external debt equals 180–200% of GDP
• Only 40% of Venezuela's debt has an identified holder
• Expected recovery on Venezuelan debt runs from 25 to 50 cents on the dollar

Updated: April 2026 · Access on request

Who it is for

Investment committee. Board of directors. New business development.

Goal

Know where each sector stands and what ceiling the environment sets for it.

Answers

• Where does each of the ten sectors stand today?
• Which enablers set the ceiling on their recovery?
• What changes for each sector in each reopening scenario?

Method

Three scenarios defined by seven observable variables. Each figure states its confidence; estimates come as a band.

Format

Ten sector profiles, a chapter on enablers, a reconstruction agenda and a sector matrix.

On the Blog

• Venezuela is not a country without assets: it is a country with assets that do not operate

Figures from the study

• Guyana already produces about 60% of the oil Venezuela produces
• Venezuelan refining runs at 35% of its capacity, and no one finances it
• With a 73% reserve requirement, Venezuelan banking is designed not to lend

Updated: August 2026 · Access on request

Who it is for

Equipment makers and importers. Distribution and technical service. Business development.

Goal

Know where the volume is and where the money is in this market.

Answers

• How many water pumps are installed in the country?
• How many are idle, and what does it cost to bring them back?
• How many are replaced every year?

Method

Customs, water utilities and the agronomic route, reconciled with each other. Every correction is documented.

Format

Report by chapters, a twelve-tab spreadsheet, three decks and three videos.

On the Blog

• Household pumps are 96% of the units and 25% of the money

Figures from the study

• About 16,400 pumping points are installed and idle, and can be recovered without drilling
• The same customs tariff line holds a $31 pump and a $4,186 one
• About 500,000 household pumps are replaced in Venezuela every year

Updated: August 2026 · Access on request

Who it is for

Boards in the sector. Investors. Healthcare providers and suppliers.

Goal

Know how much the sector bills and where its result really comes from.

Answers

• Does the result come from underwriting or from treasury?
• How many people does it cover, and with which products?
• How far is it from the region, and why?

Method

A series rebuilt company by company from the regulator’s tables. Every structural figure requires two independent sources.

Format

Executive summary, detail chapters, a 2021-2026 premium series and rerunnable scripts.

On the Blog

• Venezuelan insurers do not make money insuring: they make it in the treasury

Figures from the study

• Health accounts for two thirds of Venezuelan insurance, and has for five years
• Venezuelan insurance billed $1,132 million in 2025, and grows less every year
• Insurers' treasury yielded half of what the bolivar devalued

Updated: June 2026 · Access on request

Who it is for

Investors in the sector. Product design. Regulation and public policy.

Goal

Know whether insurance grows in people or only in dollars.

Answers

• Who pays for insurance, and which channel is shrinking?
• How much of income does a health policy take?
• What does mandatory insurance cover when the law requires it?

Method

What is not published is solved for, not assumed. Every headline is recomputed from its dataset.

Format

Executive summary, five chapters and six supporting datasets.

On the Blog

• Group health policies fell 32% while insurance grew in dollars

Figures from the study

• The move to individual insurance explains, at most, 27% of the group decline
• The price of group health policies rose 4.4 times more than that of individual ones
• An individual health policy costs 91.5% of a full year of remittances

Updated: August 2026 · Access on request