Figure · The Venezuelan crude basket
A non-state partner realizes Brent −16 for Merey, not the official price
PDVSA sells to its joint-venture partners at Brent −12/−13. The partner that places its share realizes a different price.
In September 2026, partners resold to traders at Brent −16. That equals Maya −6. With the Brent expected for year-end, it gives about $75 per barrel. That amount is a projection: it moves with the marker.
The difference is freight plus the margin of a concentrated channel. Two trading houses move more than half of exports.
For a non-US operator it weighs somewhat more. General licenses cover US persons. It must place its crude through covered counterparties.
The study recommends using the resale price as the base case. The official price stays as the high case.
- Brent −16
- is the price at which partners resold their crude to traders in September 2026
- Source: C4Accel study, series The Venezuelan crude basket · medium confidence
- ~$75/b
- is what Brent −16 gives with the Brent expected for the fourth quarter of 2026
- It rests on the Brent the EIA projects for the fourth quarter of 2026. If the marker changes, the price changes.
- Source: C4Accel study, series The Venezuelan crude basket · low confidence
Read the article: Merey: of the $8 discount to Maya, only $2 is permanent
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