Figure · The Venezuelan crude basket
Merey would realize $73 per barrel today and $61 from 2029
In the base scenario, Merey 16 realizes $73 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026. It falls to 59 in 2027-2028 and rises to 61 from 2029.
Treat these figures as a projection, not as data. For today, the range runs from $64 to $81.
The discount explains little of that curve. Against Maya, it narrows from $8 to $2 per barrel. What moves it is the marker. The EIA projects Maya at about $81 at the end of 2026 and $64 in 2027.
From 2029, only the structural discount of $2 remains.
For a C-suite executive, the sensitivity that matters is Brent and Maya. The discount weighs less than is usually assumed.
- $73/b
- is Merey 16's base realized price in the fourth quarter of 2026, with a range of 64 to 81
- It is a scenario: it rests on the Brent and Maya prices the EIA projects for the fourth quarter of 2026.
- Source: C4Accel study, series The Venezuelan crude basket · low confidence
- $61/b
- would be Merey 16's base realized price from 2029; in 2027-2028, 59
- It is the projection of the study's base scenario, not a firm forecast.
- Source: C4Accel study, series The Venezuelan crude basket · low confidence
Read the article: Merey: of the $8 discount to Maya, only $2 is permanent
Study profile: Breaking down the Venezuelan crude basket discount